Title
Using climate and a minimum set of local characteristics to predict the future distributions of freshwater fish in Ontario, Canada, at the lake-scale
Author(s)
Brie A Edwards, F. Meg Southee, and Jenni L. McDermid
Published
2016
Publisher
Global Ecology and Conservation
Abstract
Freshwater ecosystems are the most threatened on the planet, facing intense pressure from human use and climate change. In lakes, climate change will alter the quality and quantity of fish habitats by changing the seasonal availability of water at different temperatures. However, the implications for fish populations have not been well studied. Here, we predict how climate change might alter the types of fish found in lakes across Ontario. We develop models for the distribution of a cold-water species (lake whitefish), cool-water species (walleye), and warm-water species (rock bass) relative to local climate and lake characteristics. Our forecasts anticipate losses of whitefish and walleye populations across south and central Ontario, and identify Ontario’s Far North as a climate refuge for these species. The models anticipate the spread of rock bass across much of Ontario, and identify numerous lakes at risk for invasion across Ontario’s Far North.
Keywords
Climate change, Fish thermal guilds, Freshwater lakes, Multiple logistic regression, Ontario, Species distribution models
Full Citation
Edwards, B. A., F. M. Southee, and J. L. McDermid. 2016. Using climate and a minimum set of local characteristics to predict the future distributions of freshwater fish in Ontario, Canada, at the lake-scale. Global Ecology and Conservation 8: 71–84.

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