Title
Monitoring the Condition of Rangelands in the Gobi Desert: Monitoring Strategies to Detect Change. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 337
Author(s)
Khorloo Batpurev; Canran Liu; Steve J. Sinclair; Otgonsuren Avirmed; Kirk Olson
Published
2022
Abstract
Context: Overgrazing of rangelands has become a signifciant issue in Mongolia’s Gobi Desert. The South Gobi Cashmere Project (SGCP, part of the mitigation for the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine) intends to reduce grazing pressure by working with about 130-140 herding families to reduce their livestock numbers in exchange for certification and improved market access. SGCP is supported by a monitoring program that aims to assess whether the mitigation target is achieved: a 10 percentage point improvement in rangeland condition in the SGCP area, compared to a control area, measured by a published metric devised by the Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research. Monitoring commenced in 2017 and has been conducted annually by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS). No on-ground action has yet occurred that would be expected to result in reduced grazing intensity, so all monitoring data available at the time of writing is considered pre-treatment data. The intervention program will begin shortly. It is timely to review the monitoring scheme and ensure it is likely to detect the anticipated change in rangeland condition. The Arthur Rylah Institute has been contracted by WCS to examine the monitoring data and provide advice. Aims: ARI committed to provide WCS with: • a review of the existing monitoring data, to understand any trends or patterns that influence the condition score, and are likely to be relevant to the design of a monitoring program, • a quantitative power analysis, using simulations informed by the existing data to assess the probability of detecting a 10 percentage point increase in condition score, under different sampling strategies, and • practical recommendations about the design of the future monitoring program. Methods: WCS provided all monitoring data between 2017 and 2021. We developed data visualisations to summarise the main patterns apparent in the data. We then used the monitoring data to structure a quantitative power analysis, which enabled us to examine the effect of sampling pastures of different numbers of families, with different levels of within-family replication and different spatial arrangements of plots, in summer-grazed or winter-grazed pastures. Results: We found that the SGCP project is being undertaken in a region of the Gobi Desert with particularly low rainfall and low vegetation condition. The SGCP area has similar stocking rates to the rest of the Gobi region. This suggests that the location of the program is well chosen. We confirmed that condition scores relate to rainfall (positive relationship) and grazing pressure (negative relationship), as expected. We found that the most important factor in increasing power was to increase the number of family pastures sampled (SGCP and non-SGCP). Of secondary importance is ensuring that each family’s pasture is sampled by multiple plots (3-6). We weigh up the benefits of sampling in summer or winter pastures. Conclusions and implications: We provide specific recommendations to WCS that may be used (alongside practical considerations of cost and logistics) to alter the design of the monitoring strategy in a way that improves the chance of detecting the impacts of the SGCP.
Full Citation
Batpurev, K., C. Liu, S.J. Sinclair, O. Avirmed, and K. Olson (2022). Monitoring the Condition of Rangelands in the Gobi Desert: Monitoring Strategies to Detect Change. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Technical Report Series No. 337. Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia: The State of Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning.

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