Title
Can we cost-effectively manage increasing demand for natural rubber?
Author(s)
Warren-Thomas, E.;Dolman, P.D.;Diment, A.N.;Evans, T.D.;Nut, M.;O'Kelly, H.;Bebbers, D.P.;Edwards, D.P.
Published
2015
Publisher
Cambodian Journal of Natural History
Abstract
Natural rubber plantations are key drivers of land-use change and biodiversity loss in Southeast Asia and Southwest China. Here, we review evidence of biodiversity loss associated with conversion of complex forest agricultural mosaics and natural forests to rubber plantations. We then predict the area of future rubber expansion and ask whether carbon-based payments for ecosystem services (PES) are likely to cost-effectively stem the tide of forest conversion to rubber. Using industry estimates of future demand, we predict the likely area of new plantations under differing scenarios of yield, intensification of existing cultivation, and displacement of traditional rubber by oil palm. We estimate that between 4.3 and 8.5 million ha of new cultivation are required to meet projected rubber demand by 2024, threatening significant areas of Asian forest and biodiversity. We then investigate the carbon price required under PES to off set the cost of forest conversion to rubber and other expanding crops. We do so by: (i) calculating the profitability of timber harvest during the clearance phase, combined with the net present value of rubber and other crops; and (ii) using above-ground carbon stock data derived from tree sampling plots across Cambodia to calculate a carbon price equivalent to the opportunity costs. Our results indicate signifcant challenges for carbon-based PES to incentivise against conversion to rubber, especially in dry dipterocarp forests. We finish by highlighting key research directions to help mitigate the potential negative impacts of meeting future rubber demand.

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PUB15760