Skip to main content
WCS
Menu
Library
Library Catalog
eJournals & eBooks
WCS Research
Archives
Research Use
Finding Aids
Digital Collections
WCS History
WCS Research
Research Publications
Science Data
Services for WCS Researchers
Archives Shop
Bronx Zoo
Department of Tropical Research
Browse By Product
About Us
FAQs
Intern or Volunteer
Staff
Donate
Search WCS.org
Search
search
Popular Search Terms
WCS History
Library and Archives
Library and Archives Menu
Library
Archives
WCS Research
Archives Shop
About Us
Donate
en
fr
Title
Climate exposure shows high risk and few climate refugia for Chilean native vegetation
Author(s)
Muñoz-Sáez, Andrés;Choe, Hyeyeong;Boynton, Ryan M.;Elsen, Paul R.;Thorne, James H.
Published
2021
Publisher
Science of The Total Environment
Published Version DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147399
Abstract
The many Gondwanic vegetation types found across the extensive latitudes and elevation gradients of South America's southern cone contribute to Chile's global biodiversity hotspot ranking. Species loss in global biodiversity hotspots is an ongoing climate change concern and land managers need spatially explicit climate risk maps to adapt conservation strategies to climate change in these areas. We modeled future climate risk for Chile's terrestrial vegetation using a high-resolution vegetation map and tested the relationship to climate risk for each type's latitudinal and elevation range. We found that 43.6% of all vegetation has high climate risk in Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). All forest types in the country, including Southern Beech (Nothofagus sp.), Alerce (Fitzroya cupressoides), Araucaria (Araucaria araucana), and Sclerophyllous, as well as the Valdivian rainforest, Altiplanic Steppes, and Salares, face high levels of climate risk. Tests for trends in risk across elevation and latitude showed that exposure for all types increased with elevation based on the MIROC5 GCM, and decreased with latitude based on the Had2GEM-ES GCM. Our results suggest that vegetation types with smaller latitudinal ranges typically have higher levels of climate risk, but a type's elevation range is not significantly correlated with risk of exposure. We identified climatically stable areas which could act as vegetation refugia in Patagonia, the central Andes mountains between latitudes 27.5°S and 32.5°S, and some coastal areas. Conservation strategies in Chile should include the protection of climatically stable areas to safeguard current Gondwanic biodiversity and active habitat restoration in climatically exposed areas to facilitate vegetation shifts.
Keywords
Climate change;Climate risk assessment;Conservation planning;Gondwanic forest;Protected area management;Latitudinal patterns
Access Full Text
A full-text copy of this article may be available. Please email the
WCS Library
to request.
Back
PUB26364