Title
Climate anomalies and spillover of bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula
Author(s)
Latinne, Alice; Morand, Serge
Published
2022
Publisher
Viruses
Published Version DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/v14051100
Abstract
Climate variability and anomalies are known drivers of the emergence and outbreaks of infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the potential association between climate factors and anomalies, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and land surface temperature anomalies, as well as the emergence and spillover events of bat-borne viral diseases in humans and livestock in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula. Our findings from time series analyses, logistic regression models, and structural equation modelling revealed that the spillover patterns of the Nipah virus in Bangladesh and the Hendra virus in Australia were differently impacted by climate variability and with different time lags. We also used event coincidence analysis to show that the emergence events of most bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula were statistically associated with ENSO climate anomalies. Spillover patterns of the Nipah virus in Bangladesh and the Hendra virus in Australia were also significantly associated with these events, although the pattern and co-influence of other climate factors differed. Our results suggest that climate factors and anomalies may create opportunities for virus spillover from bats to livestock and humans. Ongoing climate change and the future intensification of El Niño events will therefore potentially increase the emergence and spillover of bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia-;Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula.
Keywords
bat borne virus; spillover; SARS-CoV-2; Nipah virus; Hendra virus; climate change; El Niño southern oscillation; event coincidence analysis; temporal analysis; structural equation modeling

Access Full Text

A full-text copy of this article may be available. Please email the WCS Library to request.



Back

PUB27521