Title
Jaguars (Panthera onca) in the llanos of Colombia and Venezuela: Estimating distribution and population size by combining different modeling approaches
Author(s)
Jędrzejewski, Włodzimierz;Boron, Valeria;Garrido, Esteban Payan;Hoogesteijn, Rafael;Abarca, María;Parra Romero, Angela;Viloria, Ángel;Lampo, Margarita;Marquina, Francis;Velásquez, Grisel
Published
2023
Abstract
The Llanos of Colombia and Venezuela are an ecoregion composed of savannas, forests, and wetlands, with a high biodiversity and once home to a high-density jaguar (Panthera onca) population. We used published and new jaguar presence–absence data from 2001 to 2020 and combined logistic regression with kriging interpolation to model jaguar occurrence and estimate its current range in the Llanos. Water abundance, forest cover, and primary productivity had positive effects, while road density had a negative effect in the model. The jaguar’s estimated current range covers 49% of the total area of the Llanos. This estimate is 45% and 16% lower than the 2000 and 2015 IUCN Red List assessments, respectively. We combined a previously published density model with our occurrence model to estimate the variation in jaguar population density and its population size. In most of the Llanos area, projected densities ranged from 1 to 3 jaguars per 100 km2, and we estimated the total population at 3413 jaguars (CRI: 2525–4272), two-thirds in Venezuela and one-third in Colombia. Human–jaguar conflict records, mostly jaguar attacks on livestock, were widespread on the Llanos but tend to occur at moderate cattle density and higher forest cover. In 49% of the conflict records, jaguars were killed in retaliation however, 25% of the nonconflict records also reported killing jaguars during subsistence hunts. Protected areas and indigenous territories cover only 10% and 4% of jaguar’s estimated current range, respectively, indicating an urgent need to increase the number and extent of protected areas in the Llanos.

Access Full Text

A full-text copy of this article may be available. Please email the WCS Library to request.



Back

PUB36182