Skip to main content
WCS
Menu
Library
Library Catalog
eJournals & eBooks
WCS Research
Archives
Research Use
Finding Aids
Digital Collections
WCS History
WCS Research
Research Publications
Science Data
Services for WCS Researchers
Archives Shop
Bronx Zoo
Department of Tropical Research
Browse By Product
About Us
FAQs
Intern or Volunteer
Staff
Donate
Search WCS.org
Search
search
Popular Search Terms
WCS History
Library and Archives
Library and Archives Menu
Library
Archives
WCS Research
Archives Shop
About Us
Donate
en
fr
Title
Persistence and Change in Community Composition of Reef Corals through Present, Past, and Future Climates
Author(s)
Edmunds, P. J.;Adjeroud, M.;Baskett, M. L.;Baums, I. B.;Budd, A. F.;Carpenter, R. C.;Fabina, N. S.;Fan, T.;Franklin, E. C.;Gross, K.;Han, X.;Jacobson, L.;Klaus, J. S.;McClanahan, T. R.;O'Leary, J. K.;van Oppen, M. J. H.;Pochon, X.;Putnam, H. M.;Smith, T. B.;Stat, M.;Sweatman, H.;van Woesik, R.;Gates, R. D.
Published
2014
Publisher
PLoS ONE
Published Version DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107525
Abstract
The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.
Keywords
Bleaching;Community ecology;Coral reefs;Corals;Death rates;Paleoecology;Species extinction;Theoretical ecology
Access Full Text
A full-text copy of this article may be available. Please email the
WCS Library
to request.
Back
PUB15091